Publications

• Noam Z. Dvory (2024). Stress Field Dynamics and Fault Slip Potential in the Paradox Basin. Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth. Published, 06/03/2024.
• Noam Z. Dvory, McLennan, J.D. & Singh, A. (2024). Avoiding the Salts: Strategic Fracture Propagation Management for Enhanced Stimulation Efficiency in the Cane Creek Play. Unconventional Resources Technology Conference (URTEC). Published, 06/03/2024.
• Noam Z. Dvory, Smith, P. J., McCormack, K. L., Esser, R. & McPherson B. J. (2023). On the Path to Least Principal Stress Prediction: Quantifying the Impact of Borehole Logs on the Prediction Model. The 57th U.S. Rock Mechanics/Geomechanics Symposium, Atlanta, Georgia. Published, 06/05/2023.
  https://doi.org/10.56952/ARMA-2023-0510
• McCormack K.L., Mark D Zoback & Andrew W. Frederiksen (2023). Shear-Wave Anisotropy Measurements in the Crust from Receiver Functions: An Interplay of Lower and Upper Crustal Anisotropy. Geosciences. Published, 02/07/2023.
• Noam Z. Dvory, Jens-Erik Lund Snee, Rebecca Olivia Salvage & Sam S Hashemi (2022). Induced Seismicity and Caprock Failure in Carbon Sequestration and Geo-Energy Applications. AGU. Published, 12/14/2022.
  https://scholar.google.com/citations?view_op=view_...
• Noam Z. Dvory, Yuyun Yang & Eric M Dunham (2022). Rate-and-state modeling of injection-induced aseismic slip in the Delaware Basin constrains fault-zone pore pressure changes. Authorea Preprints. Published, 11/26/2022.
  https://d197for5662m48.cloudfront.net/documents/pu...
• Noam Z. Dvory, Yuyun Yang & Eric M Dunham (2022). Models of Injection‐Induced Aseismic Slip on Height‐Bounded Faults in the Delaware Basin Constrain Fault‐Zone Pore Pressure Changes and Permeability. Geophysical Research Letters. Published, 06/16/2022.
  https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/1...
• Noam Z. Dvory, Peter Hennings, Manoochehr Shirzaei & Camilla Cattania (2021). Mechanisms of Fault Rupture and Induced Seismicity in Geothermal, Fossil Fuel, and Carbon Sequestration Applications. AGU. Published, 12/14/2021.
  https://scholar.google.com/scholar?cluster=1040181...
• Noam Z. Dvory & Mark D Zoback (2021). Prior oil and gas production can limit the occurrence of injection-induced seismicity: A case study in the Delaware Basin of western Texas and southeastern New Mexico, USA. GeoScienceWorld. Vol. 49, 1198–1203. Published, 10/01/2021.
  https://doi.org/10.1130/G49015.1
• Peter Hennings, Noam Dvory, Elizabeth Horne, Peng Li, Alexandros Savvaidis & Mark Zoback (2021). Stability of the fault systems that host‐induced earthquakes in the Delaware Basin of West Texas and Southeast New Mexico. Seismological Society of America. Vol. 1, 96-106. Published, 07/28/2021.
  https://doi.org/10.1785/0320210020

Research Statement

Presentations

• 2023 ARMA Future Leader Webinar Series The Paradox Basin as a field lab for salt rock integrity studies The Paradox Basin in Utah and Colorado presents a promising energy landscape, offering opportunities for carbon dioxide storage, hydrocarbon discovery, and enhanced recovery. This dynamic region features exten-sive salt formations and complex subsurface structures. However, it also experiences induced seismicity linked to fluid injection. Our research delves into geomechanics, focusing on the Paradox Gr. and the Cane Creek Play, to optimize processes like hydraulic fracturing. Understanding stress states, natural fractures, and the basin's unique geology is key to sustainable energy development. Our findings point towards the critical role of stress states in hydraulic fracturing, emphasizing the significance of understanding stress layering and frac-ture toughness for fracture propagation. Crucially, in the Paradox Formation, preventing fractures from enter-ing thick salt formations, which result in costly well clogging due to brine backflow, is essential. Using ad-vanced "planar fracture modeling," we simulated fracture propagation and formulated strategies to manage fracture lengths, while also analyzing the importance of fluid viscosity in hydraulic fracturing. Utilizing a comprehensive dataset from the State 16-2 vertical test well and the State 16-2 LN horizontal well, we deter-mined the stress orientations and identified a strike-slip faulting regime. By evaluating the shear and normal effective stresses on various fracture planes and their distance to failure, we were able to predict the behavior of fractures under certain pressure conditions. Considering the potential influence of stress shadows, our anal-ysis underscores the importance of accurately defining the stress state. We identified that modest pore pressure increases primarily induce slip in strike-slip faults in the Cane Creek Play. Furthermore, the study highlights the variability of the minimum principal stress with depth and its relationship to specific stratigraphic units, emphasizing the significance of understanding stress layering to optimize stimulation strategies. This research offers an in-depth analysis of the geomechanics of the Paradox Group and the Cane Creek Play, shedding light on fracture propagation into salt units. Understanding the intricate interplay between stress states, hydraulic fracturing, and the formation's unique geological attributes is essential for efficient and sustainable extraction in the future. Invited Talk/Keynote, Presented, 11/2023.
• GUSSOW 2023 - Geomechanics for Sustainable Energy Development, Banff, AB CEGA - Canadian Energy Geoscience association What Insights Can InSAR Provide on Fracture Dynamics? Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) is a cutting-edge technique enabling highly precise measurement of ground deformation within reservoir spaces. Notably, concentric land subsidence due to depletion processes and long-term injection-induced uplifts are key observations that offer potential links to poroelastic stress responses along stress paths (Dvory and Zoback, 2021). In addition, extensive lineaments extending over tens of kilometers have been identified as a distinct ground deformation feature. In regions such as the southern Delaware Basin, these lineaments correspond to normal faults in formations like the Delaware Mountain Group (Hennings et al., 2021). Employing inverse analysis, it becomes possible to assess the cumulative slip responsible for triggering such ground deformations (Pepin et al., 2021). Intriguingly, in certain cases, such as the seismically active area of the southern Delaware Basin (Sheng et al., 2020), the substantial slip (>15cm) observed cannot be solely explained by unstable frictional responses (Dvory et al., 2022). We adopt the rate state theory to simulate aseismic slip magnitude. Our findings indicate that slip initiation correlates with a pore pressure rise of 1–2 MPa, persisting for a duration of three to five years, during which pressure subsequently increases by an additional 5 MPa (see Figure 1). In our focus on aseismic slip and informed by experimental data, we set direct effect and state evolution parameters to a = 0.01 and b = 0.009, representing a velocity-strengthening behavior (a-b > 0). Another significant outcome of our analysis is the reduction of the frictional coefficient, particularly concerning normal stress over faults. This process enhances pre-slip dilatancy along fault surfaces, potentially diminishing the inclination for aseismic slip and facilitating the diffusion of pore pressure away from the injection site (Dvory et al., 2023) . Invited Talk/Keynote, Presented, 10/2023.
• University of Calgary Exploring Energy Opportunities in the Paradox Basin: A Geomechanical Perspective . Invited Talk/Keynote, Presented, 10/2023.
• Ministry of Energy and Infrastructure - Israel Water Authority CO2 underground storage . Invited Talk/Keynote, Presented, 08/2023.
• Ministry of Energy and Infrastructure - Israel Water Authority CO2 underground storage . Invited Talk/Keynote, Presented, 08/2023.
• ARMA 23–0510 On the Path to Least Principal Stress Prediction: Quantifying the Impact of Borehole Logs on the Prediction Model Knowledge of the minimum horizontal principal stress (Shmin) is essential for geo-energy utilization. Shmin direct measurements are costly, involve high-risk operations, and provide only discrete values of the required quantity. Other methods were developed to interpret a continuous stress sequence from sonic logs. These methods usually require some ‘horizontal tectonic stress’ correction for calibration and rarely match sections characterized by stress profiling due to viscoelastic stress relaxation. Recently, several studies have tried to predict the stress profile by an empirical correlation corresponding to an average strain rate through geologic time or by using machine learning technologies. Here, we used the Bayesian Physics-Based Machine Learning framework to identify the relationships among the viscoelastic parameter distributions and to quantify statistical uncertainty. More specifically, we used well logs data and ISIP measurements to quantify the uncertainty of the viscoelastic-dependent stress profile model. Our results show that the linear regression approach suffers from higher uncertainty, and the Gaussian process regression Shmin prediction shows a relatively smaller uncertainty distribution. Extracting the lithology logs from the prediction model improves each method's uncertainty distribution. We show that the density and the porosity logs have a superior correlation to the viscoplastic stress relaxation behavior. Conference Paper, Refereed, Presented, 06/2023.
• SSA San Juan Puerto Rico Adaptive model selection for the maximum magnitude event during injection Kevin L. McCormack and No’am Z. Dvory As injection of fluids into the subsurface becomes more common, the need for a technique to assess the maximum magnitude of induced events (Mmax) becomes more pressing. There are some models in the literature (e.g., uncalibrated moment cap, calibrated moment cap, statistical formulation, residual moment, and convolutional) that relate the cumulative injection to the Mmax. These models incorporate different site characteristics and physics such as seismogenic index, Gutenberg-Richter b-value, pore pressure diffusion, and moment release. We hypothesize that the model that best describes a certain injection operation may vary during the course of the injection. In fact, the seismic response ranges from mild due to aseismic slip and up to hazardous as dynamic runaway rupture behaviors is developed. Thus, we present a dynamic calculation of the Mmax predictive model. The injection might take the form of deep saline carbon dioxide sequestration, enhanced oil recovery, hydrogen storage, or stimulation of a reservoir. The processes associated with each of these scenarios are different, and we conduct a comparison between the enhanced oil recovery operations at the Farnsworth, TX site and the stimulation of the enhanced geothermal reservoir at the Utah FORGE site in Milford, UT. The results show that no one model describes the two injection projects the best. Rather, dynamically updating the model based on a misfit calculation between observed seismicity and the tested models allows the operator to incorporate the physics and site characteristics that are most applicable for the injection. The best fitting model is used for the prediction and down the road, for risk management and mitigation. Conference Paper, Refereed, Presented, 04/2023.

Research Groups

• Subsurface Integrity and Mechanics Exploration Research Group, Senior Associate. 01/04/2023 - present. https://geoenergyscience.com/. Awards/Scholarships/Stipends: United States Department of Energy .

Software Titles

• SmartSolo code. Numerous libraries and repositories are available to address the challenges of processing seismic data. While these resources are designed for broad applicability, they often do not cater specifically to the unique devices used in our lab experiments, such as the 3-channel SmartSolo geophones. Each SmartSolo unit has a compass, thermometer, GPS, and other sensors, collecting extensive metadata and seismic records. This metadata greatly facilitates the deployment of SmartSolos for precise seismic recording, offering convenience and flexibility. However, the SmartSolo metadata requires significant processing in a format suitable for effective utilization. As a result, we developed a new script to automate the analysis and formatting of seismic files with metadata logs from a SmartSolo array. This script prepares the data with other packages like Phasenet, ensuring accurate test results. SmartSolos can sample at much higher rates than earlier devices, which is invaluable for accurately picking seismic arrival times, especially when devices are deployed closely, and the array aperture is short. This high sampling rate, while beneficial, also results in a large volume of data that can be challenging to process. Fortunately, not all signal processing procedures must be applied to every geophone in the array. Only certain processes benefit from high-frequency sampling, and often, only specific time intervals around seismic events are required for further analysis. For instance, Phasenet effectively picks seismic arrivals from high-frequency data when downsampled to 100Hz for a single geophone. Subsequently, only the time series spanning the actual seismic events are needed from the other geophones for processing each arrival. These shorter intervals can be managed more efficiently, even at a high sample rate. This selective approach to data processing optimizes the utility of the SmartSolo’s capabilities while managing the challenges posed by large data volumes. Release Date: 06/01/2023.