Publications

  • Richard Fowles & Paul Cassell (2018). What Caused the 2016 Chicago Homicide Spike? An Empirical Examination of the “ACLU Effect" and the Role of Stop and Frisk in Preventing Gun Violence. University of Illinois Law Review. Vol. 5, 1581-1684. Published, 12/01/2018.
  • Fowles, R. Eastern Econ J (2018) 44: 489. https://doi.org/10.1057/eej.2015.28. Published, 01/06/2018.
    https://doi.org/10.1057/eej.2015.28
  • Still Handcuffing the Cops: A Review of Fifty Years of Empirical Evidence Of Miranda's Harmful Effects on Law Enforcement. Boston University Law Review, Vol 97.. Published, 07/10/2017.
    http://ssrn.com/abstract=3000098
  • Sturdy Inference: A Bayesian Analysis of US Motorcycle Helmet Laws Journal of the Transportation Reseach Forum, 55 (3), 41-63. Published, 04/07/2017.
    https://trforum.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/04/Mot...
  • Mitigating Avalanche Danger Using Bayesian Additive Regression Trees. Journal of Forecasting. Published, 04/25/2016.
    http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/for.242...
  • Economic Policy Relating to Motorcyle Accidents in Thailand: Prevention Budget for Motorcyle Safety, Journal of Population and Social Studies, 23(1), 98-110. Published, 01/01/2015.
  • Variable Selection in Bayesian Models Using Parameter Estimation and Non-Parameter Estimation Methods. With Gail Blattenberger and Peter Loeb. Advances in Econometrics (34), 2014, 249-278. Published, 12/15/2014.
  • Determinants of Motor Vehicle Crash Fatalities Using Bayesian Model Selection Methods. With Gail Blattenberger and Peter D. Loeb. Research in Transportation Economics, 43(1), 2013, 112-122. Published, 11/15/2014.
  • An Evaluation of Utah Department of Corrections’ Employment Placement Project, Utah Commission on Criminal and Juvenile Justice (CCJJ), June, 2014. Published, 06/15/2014.
  • Avalanche Forecasting: Using Bayesian Additive Regression Trees (BART) J. Alleman et al. (eds) Demand for Communications Services, The Economics of Information. New York, 2014. Published, 01/2014.
  • The Cell Phone Effect on Truck Accidents: A Specification Error Approach, Transportation Research Part E, 50, 2013, 18-28. Published, 01/03/2013.
  • Program Evaluation: Workplace and Community Transition for Incarcerated Individuals. Utah State Office of Education, December, 2012. Published, 12/01/2012.
  • Introduction to an Econometric Cost-Benefit Approach, Utah Commission on Criminal and Juvenile Justice, 2012. Published, 10/18/2012.
    http://www.justice.utah.gov/Documents/CCJJ/Cost%20...
  • Understanding the Cell Phone Effect on Motor Vehicle Fatalities: A Bayesian View. Applied Economics. Published, 03/10/2011.
  • Bayesian Models to Predict the Return to Prison. JSM 2010 Proceedings: Section on Bayesian Statistical Science. American Statistical Association, Alexandria, VA. 5216-5299. Published, 11/10/2010.
  • The Cell Phone Effect on Motor Vehicle Fatality Rates: A Bayesian and Classical Econometric Evaluation. Transportation Research, Part E, (46), 2010, 1140-1147. Published, 11/01/2010.
    http://www.elsevier.com/locate/tre
  • Bayesian Model Selection: Examples Relating to Motor Vehicle Fatalities. JSM Proceedings: Section on Bayesian Statistical Science, American Statistical Association, Alexandria, VA, 2009, 974-987. Published, 09/01/2009.

Research Statement

Public Policy. Bayesian econometrics. Decision Theory.

Research Keywords

  • Bayesian Econometrics

Presentations

  • Symposium: Federal Responses to Police Misconduct: Possibilities and Limits. What Caused the 2016 Chicago Homicide Spike? An Empirical Examination of the “ACLU Effect” and the Role of Stop and Frisk in Preventing Gun Violence. With Paul Cassell. University of Illinois, April, 2018. Invited Talk/Keynote, Presented, 04/13/2018.
  • The Reduction of Motor Vehicle Fatalities from the Perspective of Sturdy Values: The Autonomous Vehicle Effect. With Peter Loeb. American Economic Association Meetings. Philadelphia, 2018. Conference Paper, Refereed, Presented, 01/02/2018.
  • Symposium. The Fiftieth Anniversary of Miranda V. Arizona. Opening Keynote Address: Still Handcuffing the Cops? A Review of Fifty Years of Evidence of the Harmful Effects on Law Enforcement. Boston University. Invited Talk/Keynote, Presented, 05/2017.
  • The Determinants of Motor Vehicle Fatalities from a Bayesian Sturdy-Values Perspective. With Peter Loeb. Eastern Economic Association Meetings. New York, 2017. Conference Paper, Refereed, Presented, 04/06/2017.
  • Sturdy Inference: A Bayesian Analysis of Motor Vehicle Fatalities in the Context of Parameter Uncertainty and Model Ambiguity. With Peter Loeb. American Economic Association Meetings, Chicago, 2017. Conference Paper, Refereed, Presented, 01/07/2017.
  • Sturdy Inference: A Bayesian Analysis of US Motorcycle Helmet Laws. Eastern Economics Association. Conference Paper, Refereed, Presented, 02/17/2016.
  • The Determinants of Motorcycle Fatalities. American Economic Association, Boston, 2015. Conference Paper, Refereed, Presented, 01/03/2015.
  • Motorcycle Accidents Revisited, With Peter D. Loeb, Eastern Economics Association Meetings, Boston, 2014. Conference Paper, Presented, 03/2014.
  • Motor Vehicle Accidents Revisited. Eastern Economics Association, Boston, 2014. Conference Paper, Presented, 01/2014.
  • Understanding the Determinants of Motor Vehicle Fatalities: A Classical and Bayesian Approach, ASSA Meetings, San Diego, CA, January 2013 . Conference Paper, Refereed, Presented, 01/03/2013.
  • The Cell Phone Effect on Truck Accidents: A Specification Error Approach. With Peter D. Loeb and Wm. Clarke. National Business and Economics Society. Maui, 2012. Conference Paper, Refereed, Presented, 03/09/2012.
  • Bayesian Model Selection: Examples Relating to Motor Vehicle Fatalities. ASSA Annual Meetings, Chicago, 2012. Conference Paper, Refereed, Presented, 01/16/2012.
  • Predicting Avalanches in a Forest of Bayesian Trees / Institute of Mathematical Statistics / MCMSki III / Park City, Utah. Poster, Presented, 01/06/2011.
  • Steroid Profiling Among National Football League Players. Proceedings of the Cologne Workshop on Dope Analysis. 2010. Conference Paper, Other, 10/15/2010.
  • Bayesian Models to Predict the Return to Prison. Conference Paper, Refereed, Other, 10/15/2010.
  • Bayesian Model Selection: Examples Related to Motor Vehicle Crashes. Conference Paper, Refereed, Other, 08/20/2010.

Software Titles

  • MICRO EBA. Implementation of Bayesian Extreme Bounds Analysis. Release Date: 01/2014.
  • MicroEBA. Bayesian Extreme Bounds Analysis. Release Date: 01/01/2012.
  • MicroEBA. Bayesian Extreme Bounds Analysis. Release Date: 01/01/2011.
  • Micro EBA. Bayesian Extreme Bounds Analysis. Release Date: 07/01/2010.
  • Micro EBA. Bayesian Extreme Bounds Analysis. Release Date: 09/10/2009.

Geographical Regions of Interest

  • South-Eastern Asia
  • Thailand