- "Distribution-utilization interactions: a race to the bottom among OECD countries" Metroeconmica, 2015 forthcoming. Published, 06/2015.
- “Targets and lags in a two-equation model of US stabilization policy,” Economic Modeling 44: 18-24, 2015. Published, 01/2015.
- “Profit Maximizing Goes Global: the race to the bottom,” Cambridge Journal of Economics, 2014. Published, 09/2014.
- The Political Economy of the SARS Epidemic: The impact on human resources in East Asia. by Grace O. M. Lee and Malcolm Warner in Journal of Asian Economics 20: 87-88. Published, 2009.
- Kiefer, D. “Revealed Preferences for Macroeconomic Stabilization,” Journal of Applied Economics 11: 119-143. Published, 2008.
- Kiefer, D. and Khan, S. R., “Revealed Social Preferences for Equality and Growth” Journal of Income Distribution 17: 21-34. Published, 2008.
- Khan, S. R. and Kiefer, D. “Educational Production Functions for Rural Pakistan: A Comparative Institutional Analysis” Education Economics 15: 327-342. Published, 2007.
- Reforming the US Corporate Tax. by G. C. Hufbauer and P. L. E. Grieco in Journal of Asian Economics 17: 952-953. Published, 2006.
- Kiefer, D. “Partisan Stabilization Policy and Voter Control,” Public Choice 122: 115-132. Published, 2005.
- Kiefer, D. “Activist Macroeconomic Policy, Election Effects and Adaptive Expectations: Evidence from OECD Economies,” Economics and Politics 12: 137-154. Published, 2000.
- Kiefer, D. Macroeconomic Policy and Public Choice, Springer-Verlag. Published, 1999.
A decade ago I published a book on public choice. Its unifying premise is that the social equilibrium has political determinants. I apply this idea to macroeconomic policy within a new Keynesian model in which governments react quickly to lean against macroeconomic shocks. In the longer-run I apply the same premise to social equilibrium, assuming that governments tradeoff growth and income equality, subject to the Kuznets curve. An interesting twist here is that historical outcomes are consistent with the conclusion that governments reveal a preference for less, rather than more, equality.
One recent paper studies what recent history reveals about the functional form of stabilization goals. Another extends this model to include the possibility that the goals of voters that can differ from those of political parties, recognizing that presidents pay most attention to voter preferences when elections are imminent and tight.
Recently my work is focused on a more general econometric specification of the macroeconomic policy model using the state space method. This framework is appropriate to macroeconomics because it endogenizes unobservable elements like the output gap. A recent paper uses this method as the basis for an empirical comparison of the new Phillips curve literature. This literature develops microfoundations for the inflation-output tradeoff. A related paper extends the state space method to study the short-run policy interactions among globalized economies.
Another recent paper is an empirical study the predator–prey model; this theory hypothesizes that business cycles results from the dynamic interaction between macroeconomics conditions and the distribution of income between labor and capital. We study four decades of OECD data. Although we do not find evidence of persistent cycles, we do find dynamic interactions between the output gap and wage share that converge to an eventual equilibrium. More interesting is our long-term finding of a strong anti-labor trend and a weaker inefficiency trend in advanced market economies.
- “Profit Maximizing Goes Global: The Race to the Bottom,” Wake Forest University Economics Department Seminar. Invited Talk/Keynote, Presented, 04/02/2013.
visiting professor, John Cabot University, Rome, Italy, 2014-15.